Document Type : Research Article
Authors
1 PhD Student in Regional Studies, Faculty of Law and Political Science, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran. Iran.
2 Professor Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
Abstract
Highlights
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Foreign policy constitutes a set of decisions, objectives, strategies, and implementation mechanisms designed to establish communication and interaction with the external environment and both state and non-state actors. Its purpose is to minimize costs while maximizing national interests, enhance the country’s standing within the international system, and ensure that the domestic environment benefits from its outcomes. Although conceptually defined as an extension of domestic policy, a purposeful and coherent foreign policy can serve as an effective instrument for realizing domestic policymaking objectives, strengthening societal support for governmental programs, and increasing the efficiency of the ruling political elites in governance. This is because sound or misguided decision-making in this domain has the capacity to shape the political, economic, and social destinies of multiple generations. Accordingly, the theoretical and practical examination and analysis of foreign policy have consistently drawn the attention of political decision-makers and scholars within specialized fields.
The present study examines the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran under the Thirteenth Government. This Government, led by Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi, assumed executive authority in 2021 (1400 in the Iranian calendar) amid a domestic environment beset by multiple challenges such as high inflation, rising unemployment, widening class disparities, and growing public discontent. At the same time, the nuclear issue had profoundly overshadowed the domain of foreign policy. Adopting a distinct and revolutionary approach, and in accordance with the guidelines of the Supreme Leader, the Thirteenth Government pursued a balanced strategy to address both domestic and international challenges. Under the slogan “A People’s Government, a Strong Iran”, it articulated a foreign policy orientation grounded in multilateralism, proactive engagement, efforts to lift sanctions, prioritization of neighborhood policy, and de-escalation. Moreover, the relative political uniformity within the state structure, coupled with the support of governmental institutions and the armed forces, created a unique set of circumstances conducive to advancing foreign policy objectives. Accordingly, the central question of this study is: based on James N. Rosenau’s Theory, which of the five categories of determinants and variables has exerted the most significant and influential role in shaping the foreign policy orientation of the Thirteenth Government? It should be noted that, due to the inherently intertwined and interactive nature of these variables, establishing a complete analytical separation among them is challenging. Although, in this research, the classification of variables is analytical, the explanation of each also takes into account their interconnectedness and mutual influence.
Methodology
The present study is designed to examine the factors influencing the foreign policy orientation of the Thirteenth Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, based on James N. Rosenau’s Linkage Theory. Accordingly, drawing upon the aforementioned theoretical framework, as well as credible scholarly literature, existing analytical documents and sources, and an examination of the positions and statements of policymakers and elites active in the foreign policy arena, this research adopts a qualitative design with an explanatory–descriptiveapproach. Data collection in this study has been conducted through library and internet-based methods, and efforts have been made to systematically analyze the collected data in order to explore and interpret the various dimensions of the subject under investigation.
Result and discussion
Due to the revolutionary identity inherent in the Islamic Republic of Iran, the influence of the individual as a variable within the decision-making structure becomes more pronounced compared to other factors such as legal frameworks, societal structures, and, at times, even the international environment. Consequently, achieving macro-level objectives requires reaching a consensus among political elites (Mahmoodi Reja & Siaposhi, 2018: 193). However, what is particularly noteworthy is that the existence of a revolutionary identity and the influential role of the individual in foreign policy have not led to deviations from the established written or unwritten foundational principles. As historical experience demonstrates, since the victory of the Islamic Revolution, various Governments have assumed power, and although the core decision-makers—such as the president, advisors, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs—have pursued distinct approaches in the foreign policy domain, they have consistently adhered to certain enduring principles. If the liberal nationalist discourse is considered an exception, throughout the subsequent Governments from 1981 (1360) to 2021 (1400), the evolution of foreign policy has exhibited both elements of change and continuity. This pattern reflects the interplay among the ruling political elites’ perceptions, Governmental conditions and exigencies, societal imperatives, and the structure of the international system—each of which has manifested in varying forms across different periods.
In the initial phase of examining the foreign policy of the Thirteenth Government, the role of the individual variable in decision-making merits study. By referring to Rosenau’s definition of the individual variable, we can ascertain that it encompasses characteristics and attributes stemming from the individual's prior experiences in other roles, their norms, values, and beliefs, and everything that constitutes the individual's cognition and is subsequently manifested in their foreign policy conduct. From this perspective, an examination of Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi's executive record, particularly his previous role as the Head of the Judiciary, reveals that pragmatic revolutionary action has consistently been the guiding principle of his tenure. As a cleric deeply committed to defined religious frameworks and possessing a personal revolutionary conviction, he holds a firm belief in and loyalty to the foundational principles of the Islamic Revolution, adheres to the theories and utilizes the guidance provided by the Revolution's leaders, and also possesses a strong populist spirit. His numerous stances on domestic and international issues have included transparency with the public, confronting hegemonic powers, and combating internal inefficiencies and structural corruption. Even within the framework of the Judiciary, he operated with a distinct perspective compared to his predecessors. Therefore, upon being selected as the nation's chief executive in the presidency, he proceeded to implement his Government's documented plans with enhanced executive capacity.
The Thirteenth Government formulated its foreign policy in alignment with the principles of Dignity (Izzat), Prudence (Hikmat), and Expediency (Maslahat), commensurate with the standards of the Islamic Revolution. It pursued an all-encompassing diplomacy and sought to expand engagement with all state actors, excluding Israel. Within this context, particular emphasis was placed on Asianism, especially comprehensive engagement with neighboring countries. Furthermore, the Government prioritized utilizing organizational capacities, such as membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), to broaden economic and political interactions. Concurrently, pursuing negotiations aimed at lifting oppressive sanctions, maintaining relations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and achieving the closure of disputed cases were also among its primary agenda items. Considering the Role variable within Rosenau's Linkage Model, despite the President's revolutionary disposition and the existence of a negative perspective toward agreement and negotiation with the United States, owing to past bitter experiences, individuals situated within the defined roles are obligated to adhere to assigned duties. This adherence is necessary to maintain Dignity, Prudence, and Expediency within the established framework of the Islamic Revolution. This obligation stems from the fact that the ramifications of foreign policy decisions do not affect only a small cohort but possess the capacity to influence the entire political and social structure. Therefore, irrespective of their personal attitudes, individuals must act in accordance with their defined role responsibilities.
The Thirteenth Government commenced its program execution from the outset by employing a synthesis of idealism, realism, and pragmatism, demonstrating a more profound perspective on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) issues. The Government assumed office while Iran was confronting intense external pressures and sanctions, compounded by domestic problems including an economic crisis, inflation, and the COVID-19 pandemic, all of which amplified the challenges facing the ruling structure. The lack of prior foreign policy experience for Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, in contrast to Hassan Rouhani, led him to rely on political institutions and figures who had supported him during the election. Consequently, he has been somewhat deferential to the aligned views expressed by parallel entities within the political structure (Abdusattor Ugli, 2023: 27). However, a factor that positively influenced the performance of the Thirteenth Government was the alignment of key decision-making institutions, including the Legislative and Judicial branches, with the Executive branch. Furthermore, Mr. Raisi's experience and political outlook garnered him support not only from allied political and governmental bodies but also from Maraji' al-Taqlid (Sources of Emulation/Grand Ayatollahs) and military institutions. In this regard, it can be asserted that the unprecedented homogenization of the country's political structure occurred during this period. This circumstance maximized the Government's executive capacity, enabling it to implement its programs domestically without significant political obstacles. Moreover, through controlling the conditions and increasing foreign currency inflows, the Government managed, to some extent, to navigate past the critical phase experienced in the preceding year.
According to Rosenu's theory, the society possesses components that exert influence on foreign policy irrespective of the prevailing political structure. The focus of previous Governments' performance was predominantly centered on the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) and the lifting of sanctions; however, the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA and the ensuing sanctions pressure led to a severe deterioration of the economic conditions. A negative economic recession occurred, accompanied by a rise in inflation, unemployment, popular discontent, and class stratification. These factors precipitated a decline in trust and widened the Government-nation gap, with reduced electoral participation serving as a clear manifestation of societal dissatisfaction. Whenever socio-political fluctuations undermine societal support, the state's arena for maneuverability in foreign policy becomes constrained. In such circumstances, the Government is compelled to undertake constructive measures to regenerate national confidence. During his inaugural press conference, the President adopted a pragmatic approach, prioritizing an "inward-looking" perspective. Furthermore, in speeches and media interactions, he announced that the revival of bankrupt small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), support for small businesses, job creation, and housing construction are among the Government's high-priority programs aimed at ameliorating the prevailing conditions. Consequently, although the societal variable does not exert a direct influence on foreign policy, it can play a role in determining the success and positive efficacy of that policy in the external arena through its perceptions and misperceptions of Governmental performance.
In accordance with Rosenau’s theory, structure invariably impacts the foreign policy approach of Governments. Considering this framework, a segment of the Thirteenth Government’s foreign policy can be attributed to the negative externalities stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and the resultant damage inflicted upon governance. Furthermore, international conflicts and disputes, including the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions between China and Taiwan, Sino-American disagreements, and the threat of international terrorism proliferation (Khaleel, 2023: 737), constituted factors, distinct from domestic resources, that elucidate the rationale behind the Thirteenth Government’s adopted posture. Alam Saleh (21 August 2022) posits that since the inauguration of Ebrahim Raisi, the complexity of geopolitical developments within the international system has significantly intensified the conditions for the Government. However, due to the escalation of the international power game among poles challenging U.S. unilateralism, Iran’s latitude for choice has expanded considerably. This Government managed to maintain a balance in its external relations through an “Look East” orientation, specifically by expanding ties with China and Russia, thereby increasing its bargaining power through augmented influence.
Conclusion
This research analyzes the foreign policy of the Thirteenth Government using Rosenau's Continuity Model. According to this model, the orientation of foreign policy is the result of combining the variables of the Individual, Role, Regime, Society, and the International System. In the Thirteenth Government, the individual variable was influenced by the revolutionary spirit and pragmatism characteristic of the President himself. The performance of previous Governments, which was concentrated on the nuclear issue and the West, had resulted in the underutilization of other capacities. The unilateral withdrawal of the U.S. from the JCPOA exacerbated the economic situation, leading to a negative perception of the nuclear agreement. The Thirteenth Government, adopting a multilateral approach, balanced foreign relations; alongside pursuing nuclear negotiations, it expanded ties with China and Russia and engaged actively in organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS. The primary focus was regional de-escalation and the expansion of relations with neighboring countries, the most significant outcome of which was the accord with Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, active economic diplomacy led to the unblocking of a portion of frozen assets. These shifts are the outcome of a synthesis of the President's balanced individual perspective, the transitional nature of the international structure, the alignment of Governmental institutions, and, to some extent, societal dissatisfaction with economic pressures.
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